A public, pre-registered experiment
The Honest Bot Experiment
Five trading bots, rules frozen in advance, results published win or lose.
Scoreboard
Trendline
CASH$100,000
0.00%
vs Benchmark: 0.00 pp
Snapback
CASH$100,000
0.00%
vs Benchmark: 0.00 pp
Oracle
CASH$100,000
0.00%
vs Benchmark: 0.00 pp
Benchmark
CASHThe bar to clear
$100,000
0.00%
Coinflip
CASH$100,000
0.00%
vs Benchmark: 0.00 pp
Equity curves
All five sleeves start from $100,000 in simulated cash. Fills are at official opening prices with a 0.01% cost per trade.
The numbers
| Bot | Total return | Sharpe (ann.) | Max drawdown | Trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trendline | 0.00% | — | 0.00% | 0 |
| Snapback | 0.00% | — | 0.00% | 0 |
| Oracle | 0.00% | — | 0.00% | 0 |
| Benchmark | 0.00% | — | 0.00% | 0 |
| Coinflip | 0.00% | — | 0.00% | 0 |
Backtest, for the record (Jan 2000 to Jun 2026, QuantConnect)
Trendline: 413.67% · Sharpe 0.263 · maxDD 24.2% · 173 orders
Snapback: 287.87% · Sharpe 0.183 · maxDD 34.5% · 605 orders
The forward test exists to measure the gap from these numbers. Oracle has no backtest, by design.
Oracle's corner
What Oracle read on June 12, 2026 · cnbc-markets
- 1.UK economy shrank 0.1% in April as Iran conflict weighed on growth (Fri, 12 Jun 2026 07:01:15 GMT)
- 2.A Chinese start-up's unfolding dilemma exposes cracks in Beijing's tech funding machine (Fri, 12 Jun 2026 01:21:00 GMT)
- 3.Wholesale prices rose 1.1% in May, more than expected, on surge in energy (Thu, 11 Jun 2026 16:25:00 GMT)
- 4.ECB hikes interest rates for first time since 2023 as Iran war ramps up energy costs (Thu, 11 Jun 2026 13:57:33 GMT)
- 5.Consumer prices rose 4.2% annually in May, highest in three years (Wed, 10 Jun 2026 14:30:31 GMT)
- 6.Energy prices take center stage as the ECB prepares to decide on rates (Thu, 11 Jun 2026 07:20:29 GMT)
- 7.The May inflation numbers are due out Wednesday morning. Here's what to expect (Tue, 09 Jun 2026 19:49:59 GMT)
- 8.Household worries over finances hit highest level since July 2022, New York Fed survey shows (Mon, 08 Jun 2026 16:13:12 GMT)
- 9.The May jobs report will be released Friday. Here's what to expect (Thu, 04 Jun 2026 22:12:06 GMT)
- 10.Long-term unemployment is surging in the U.S. There are hidden costs for workers and the economy (Thu, 04 Jun 2026 18:55:32 GMT)
Its answer, verbatim
"CASH"
The frozen prompt
You are deciding a one-day position in SPY (the S&P 500 ETF) based solely on this morning's headlines. Below are the ten most recent headlines from a major financial news feed, fetched at 9:00 AM Eastern on {DATE}.
{HEADLINES}
Based only on these headlines, decide whether to be LONG SPY for today's session or to hold CASH. Reply with exactly one word: LONG or CASH.
Daily log
Most recent: June 12, 2026
- close
- 737.76
- sma200
- 685.8166
- rsi2
- 62.2997
- source
- cnbc-markets
- headline_count
- 10
always LONG
- draw
- 3877220648
| Date | Signals | Activity |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 12 | TLSCOCBLCL | · |
| Jun 11 | T·S·O·B·C· | · |
Each chip: bot letter, then stance (L long, C cash). Bots: T Trendline · S Snapback · O Oracle · B Benchmark · C Coinflip
Changelog
No amendments. The rules have not changed since pre-registration.
15 pipeline runs, 10 errors. All public, including the errors.
Every table behind this page is publicly readable: prices, signals, trades, the daily ledger, the run log, and this changelog.
A bot wins only by beating Benchmark on both return and Sharpe over the full window. Six months can't distinguish skill from luck; that's what Coinflip is for.
Nothing here is investment advice. All money is simulated.
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