A public, pre-registered experiment
The Honest Bot Experiment
Five trading bots, rules frozen in advance, results published win or lose.
Scoreboard
Trendline
LONG$101,618
+1.62%
vs Benchmark: 0.00 pp
Benchmark
LONGThe bar to clear
$101,618
+1.62%
Snapback
CASH$100,627
+0.63%
vs Benchmark: -0.99 pp
Coinflip
LONG$99,012
-0.99%
vs Benchmark: -2.61 pp
Oracle
CASH$98,805
-1.20%
vs Benchmark: -2.81 pp
Equity curves
All five sleeves start from $100,000 in simulated cash. Fills are at official opening prices with a 0.01% cost per trade.
The numbers
| Bot | Total return | Sharpe (ann.) | Max drawdown | Trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trendline | +1.62% | 2.13 | 2.52% | 2 |
| Snapback | +0.63% | 4.63 | 0.00% | 2 |
| Oracle | -1.20% | -3.01 | 1.94% | 2 |
| Benchmark | +1.62% | 2.13 | 2.52% | 2 |
| Coinflip | -0.99% | -1.25 | 3.72% | 7 |
Backtest, for the record (Jan 2000 to Jun 2026, QuantConnect)
Trendline: 413.67% · Sharpe 0.263 · maxDD 24.2% · 173 orders
Snapback: 287.87% · Sharpe 0.183 · maxDD 34.5% · 605 orders
The forward test exists to measure the gap from these numbers. Oracle has no backtest, by design.
Oracle's corner
What Oracle read on July 2, 2026 · cnbc-markets
- 1.U.S. economy added 57,000 jobs in June, less than expected; unemployment rate at 4.2% (Thu, 02 Jul 2026 12:59:02 GMT)
- 2.Europe wants to rebalance trade with Beijing, but can't quit Chinese air conditioners (Thu, 02 Jul 2026 12:52:09 GMT)
- 3.World Cup could boost the June jobs report by 40,000, Goldman estimates (Thu, 02 Jul 2026 10:18:05 GMT)
- 4.Private payrolls rose by 98,000 in June, less than expected, ADP reports (Wed, 01 Jul 2026 13:41:09 GMT)
- 5.North Sea oil and renewables: The UK’s next PM faces a defining energy policy decision (Wed, 01 Jul 2026 06:28:00 GMT)
- 6.Do you really, really love your job? Then you're not alone, according to surprising results from this survey (Tue, 30 Jun 2026 11:08:24 GMT)
- 7.China widens Japan export curbs, targeting drone makers, nuclear firms and defense institutes (Mon, 29 Jun 2026 04:46:25 GMT)
- 8.Shipping rebounds in Strait of Hormuz one week after U.S.-Iran deal – but fragile confidence threatens recovery (Fri, 26 Jun 2026 09:36:24 GMT)
- 9.UN agency pauses Hormuz ship evacuation plan after first vessel attack under peace deal (Fri, 26 Jun 2026 02:07:59 GMT)
- 10.Core inflation rate hit 3.4% in May, highest since October 2023, Fed’s preferred gauge shows (Thu, 25 Jun 2026 13:30:56 GMT)
Its answer, verbatim
"CASH"
The frozen prompt
You are deciding a one-day position in SPY (the S&P 500 ETF) based solely on this morning's headlines. Below are the ten most recent headlines from a major financial news feed, fetched at 9:00 AM Eastern on {DATE}.
{HEADLINES}
Based only on these headlines, decide whether to be LONG SPY for today's session or to hold CASH. Reply with exactly one word: LONG or CASH.
Daily log
Most recent: July 2, 2026
- close
- 745.76
- sma200
- 691.8671
- rsi2
- 75.9499
- source
- cnbc-markets
- headline_count
- 10
always LONG
- draw
- 2767461878
| Date | Signals | Activity |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 2 | TLSCOCBLCL | · |
| Jul 1 | TLSCOCBLCL | Coinflip BUY @ 745.00 |
| Jun 30 | TLSCOCBLCC | Coinflip SELL @ 741.29Snapback SELL @ 741.29 |
| Jun 29 | TLSLOCBLCL | Coinflip BUY @ 736.52Snapback BUY @ 736.52 |
| Jun 26 | TLSCOCBLCC | · |
| Jun 25 | TLSCOCBLCC | Oracle SELL @ 738.91 |
| Jun 24 | TLSCOLBLCC | Coinflip SELL @ 735.17 |
| Jun 23 | TLSCOLBLCL | Benchmark BUY @ 733.81Trendline BUY @ 733.81 |
| Jun 22 | T·S·OLB·CL | Coinflip BUY @ 747.70Oracle BUY @ 747.70 |
| Jun 19 | TLSCOLBLCC | · |
| Jun 18 | TLSCOCBLCC | Coinflip SELL @ 747.76Trendline div +$257Benchmark div +$257Coinflip div +$257 |
| Jun 17 | TLSCOCBLCL | · |
| Jun 16 | TLSCOCBLCL | · |
| Jun 15 | TLSCOCBLCL | · |
| Jun 12 | TLSCOCBLCL | Trendline BUY @ 740.71Coinflip BUY @ 740.71Benchmark BUY @ 740.71 |
| Jun 11 | T·S·O·B·C· | · |
Each chip: bot letter, then stance (L long, C cash). Bots: T Trendline · S Snapback · O Oracle · B Benchmark · C Coinflip
Changelog
No amendments. The rules have not changed since pre-registration.
44 pipeline runs, 11 errors. All public, including the errors.
Every table behind this page is publicly readable: prices, signals, trades, the daily ledger, the run log, and this changelog.
A bot wins only by beating Benchmark on both return and Sharpe over the full window. Six months can't distinguish skill from luck; that's what Coinflip is for.
Nothing here is investment advice. All money is simulated.
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